Huge Space for the Outbreak of Household Power Station

Huge Space for the Outbreak of Household Power Station

Overseas Households' Power Reserves:  Broken Bamboo, and Golden Growth Period 

The demand for energy storage is growing rapidly. In 2022, the world will usher in a new stage of household energy storage explosion, and the penetration rate has room to increase tenfold! Due to the maturity of energy storage technology and cost reduction, energy storage will begin to grow rapidly in 2021. In 2022, due to the rising energy costs and electricity prices in Europe, superimposed on the Russian-Ukrainian war and large-scale power outages overseas, residential electricity costs are high and power supply stability is poor. The high growth of household photovoltaics has brought about an unexpected outbreak of the household energy storage market.

Driven by European policies and economics, household savings have exploded, and U.S. household savings have grown rapidly. The installed capacity of household storage in Europe has shown explosive growth. Among them, Germany is the largest household storage market in the world. This year, the electricity price of German residents will reach more than 40 euro cents/kwh, which is three times higher than that at the beginning of 2021. The payback period of the optical storage system is 7-8 years. For example, considering the introduction of tax relief or direct subsidies by various countries, the payback period of investment will be further shortened to 2-3 years. (Report source: Future Think Tank)

Other countries in Europe, such as Italy, Poland, the United Kingdom, and the Czech Republic, are also accelerating their growth. We expect that the installed capacity of household energy storage in Europe will reach 10/23GWh in 2022/2023, an increase of 378%/133%. Chinese battery and inverter companies are in High recognition in Europe, fully benefiting from the outbreak of European household savings demand! Local dealer installers also benefit greatly. High electricity prices in the United States + poor power supply system, saving electricity costs based on self-use and peak-valley arbitrage, and the demand for household storage grows rapidly. The U.S. household storage market focuses on local brands (Tesla/Enphase, etc.), and Chinese companies are gradually infiltrating industrial, commercial and ground energy storage. China's household storage economy is not high, but the local implementation of the mandatory allocation and storage policy, and the continuous increase in the peak-to-valley electricity price difference between industry and commerce, distributed energy storage is expected to gradually increase.

The new track for household energy storage, the world ushered in an acceleration period

1. Household energy storage: the core is the solar energy storage system with battery + energy storage inverter

Household energy storage is a necessary aid for distributed energy systems. According to the application scenarios, energy storage can be divided into user side (self-generated and self-consumption, peak-valley price difference arbitrage), power generation side (renewable energy grid connection, reduction of solar energy and wind), grid side (power peak regulation, frequency regulation), transmission and distribution side and Ancillary services (5G base station backup power), etc.

The core of the household solar storage system is photovoltaic + battery + energy storage inverter. Household energy storage and household photovoltaics are combined to form a household optical storage system. The optical storage system mainly includes cells, energy storage inverters (bidirectional converters), component systems and other parts. A typical system is generally 5KW ( components + inverter) supporting 10KWH (energy storage battery) or 10KW+10KWH, in which the battery is the core of the energy storage system, accounting for about 45-50% of the cost; the energy storage converter can control the charge and discharge, AC and DC The cost of solar power generation is about 10-15%; the component system, that is, the photovoltaic system used for solar power generation, accounts for about 20-25% of the cost; the installation cost will increase from 10,000 in 2021 to about 20,000, accounting for 15-20 %.

2. Product series: household energy storage products are divided into integrated machine and split machine

Household energy storage system products include all-in-one and split. 1) All-in-one machine: The home-style photovoltaic energy storage and inverter integrated machine is an integrated integrated system with photovoltaic inverter, battery and controller placed inside. It can display the working status conveniently, quickly and intuitively through the touch screen, and can modify parameters and work in a variety of ways. mode, easy to use. Generally, there are three working modes: solar priority mode, AC (mains) priority mode, and SE priority mode (off-peak power consumption mode); 2) Split type (inverter + battery system): household split machine battery and inverter The inverters are installed separately, and the user can match the household energy storage inverter according to their own needs, and can also match the switching power supply or the inverter as a backup power supply. Generally, there are four types of hybrid home photovoltaic + energy storage systems, coupled home photovoltaic + energy storage systems, off-grid home photovoltaic + energy storage systems, and photovoltaic energy storage energy management systems.

3. Technical route: lithium iron phosphate battery is the mainstream route

The mainstream technology route of household energy storage is lithium iron phosphate, and sodium ion and lithium iron manganese are new paths in the future. The technical route of energy storage battery includes lithium ion, lead battery, flow battery, etc. At present, lithium iron phosphate battery is more in line with the design requirements of energy storage battery than ternary lithium battery due to its high safety and long cycle life. , is the mainstream development route of energy storage batteries, and Tesla energy storage batteries have gradually shifted from the ternary route to the iron-lithium route. In addition, some companies such as Ningde and Paineng are already conducting R&D and testing of sodium ion and lithium iron manganese batteries. We expect that the technical route of energy storage batteries is expected to be further improved in the future.

4. Industry barriers: product design and channel construction

The core barrier of household energy storage lies in the adaptation and channel advantages of energy storage inverters. Household energy storage, as a small energy storage battery, does not require high integrated core technology, and its core competitiveness is product design and market development (the key is market brand and channel construction). 1) Product design: mainly for adaptation to energy storage inverters (different countries/regions have different requirements) and customized product design for customer needs, for example, BMS and energy storage inverters in energy storage systems need Adaptation, the energy storage inverter controller communicates with the BMS through the CAN interface to obtain the status information of the battery pack, which can realize the protective charging and discharging of the battery and ensure the safe operation of the battery. 2) Channel construction: According to PV magazine's research, the biggest factor consumers consider when purchasing energy storage batteries is brand reputation. Consumers rarely know the source of the batteries and components used, and overseas channel certification cycles are complex and relatively In the long run, the channel construction and maintenance of energy storage manufacturers and downstream integrators and installers is particularly important.

5. Business model: multiple sales methods coexist, brand and channel building advantages

The sales model includes direct sales and distribution, brand and channel building advantages. The sales models of the three types of players in the household energy storage industry chain are as follows: 1) Battery cell/energy storage inverter suppliers: divided into To C and To B, To C generally integrates home storage systems, and automatically Building channels and promoting their own brands have certain consumption attributes. To B is a general product supplier who sells products to integrators, does not have consumption attributes, and earns material costs and processing fees.

6. Pricing model: Household storage has a higher price abroad, and the profit per watt-hour is lucrative

The price difference between domestic and foreign energy storage is the largest, higher than that of industrial and commercial energy storage and MW-level energy storage, and is nearly 133% higher than that of domestic energy storage (based on the highest price). At present, the domestic price of household storage products within 30kWH is 1.0-1.5 yuan/Wh, and the foreign price is 2.0-3.5 yuan/Wh, including the battery cell, BMS, shell, and connecting wire harness 10-year warranty. There are four kinds of quotations: EXW, FOB, CIF and DDP. The quotation consists of goods pricing, accessories and FOB/CIF/DDP. At present, CIF offers are in the majority, and sellers take higher risks.

7. Demand volume: Demand is growing rapidly, and the world is ushering in an accelerated period of household energy storage

The demand for household energy storage is growing rapidly, with a year-on-year increase of 56% in 2021. According to BNEF data, the global installed capacity of energy storage in 2021 is about 10GW/22GWh, an increase of 84%/105% year-on-year, of which the installed capacity of distributed energy storage is about 2.5GW/5.6GWh, a year-on-year increase of 45%/40%. The installed capacity of household storage is about 1.9GW/4.4GWh, an increase of about 53%/56% year-on-year. The global household storage is booming. The main driving factors come from two aspects, one is the continuous increase of policy support, and the other is the high-yield economy. sex drive. (Report source: Future Think Tank)

Driven by high cost performance, the demand for household savings is booming

1. Reason 1: The cost of electricity is high and continues to rise

Under the energy crisis, overseas electricity costs continue to rise. In recent years, electricity prices in Europe and the United States have been rising year by year, and affected by events such as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the cost of natural gas has soared, and the cost of electricity prices has risen rapidly in the short term. Above MWh, electricity prices in European countries in May 2022 will increase by 100-330% compared with the beginning of 2021. According to ING's forecast, basic energy prices in European economies such as France, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands will remain high at around 150-170 euros/MWh throughout 2022.

2. Reason 2: Weak power grid coordination and insufficient power supply reliability

Affected by extreme weather overseas, the coordination ability of power grid is weak, and the stability of power supply for residents is poor. In recent years, various large-scale power outages have occurred overseas. In 2021, the U.S. power grid system is relatively old, and Texas is affected by the cold current. According to EIA statistics, the average power outage time per customer in the United States in 2020 is as high as 492 hours, of which the outage time caused by major events such as severe weather and emergencies is 373 hours. In 2022, a power plant accident occurred in Taiwan, China, affecting 5.49 million households and losing 10.5 million kilowatts, accounting for about 1/3 of Taiwan's electricity. Household storage can provide emergency power in the event of power plant accidents or extreme natural disasters, improving the stability of electricity consumption.

3. Reason 3: Policy support such as tax reduction and exemption is gradually implemented

Overseas countries have introduced policies such as tax relief or direct subsidies to promote development. Relevant policies can be mainly divided into two categories. One is to implement relevant tax relief. For example, Italy will increase the tax relief for home storage equipment to 110%, and the United States will give up to 30% of investment in energy storage systems higher than 5kWh by 2026. Tax relief; the other is to implement financial subsidies, such as Japan providing 66% of the cost subsidy for households and businesses that install lithium-ion batteries, and Bavaria, Germany, providing 500 euros (550 US dollars) for each energy storage system with a capacity of more than 3kWh )subsidy.

4. Reason 4: High yield, short payback period

The rate of return of household savings is relatively high, and the rate of return can reach more than 15% without considering the subsidy, and the payback period is within 6-9 years. Germany, the United States and other countries in the forefront of the development of household energy storage in the world, due to their high electricity price yields, 1) Take Germany as an example, assuming a scale of 5KW, 50%*2h of distribution and storage, and the cost of household photovoltaic + energy storage is 2.06 EUR/W, the IRR is 22.55% after the calculation of the retail electricity price of 0.4 EUR/KWh and the feed-in electricity price of 0.06 EUR/KWh. 2) Taking California as an example, assuming a scale of 5KW, allocation and storage of 30%*4h, the cost of household photovoltaic + energy storage is US$4.63/W, calculated based on the peak electricity price of US$0.6/KWh and the average electricity price of US$0.23/KWh The IRR reaches 18.9%. With the decrease of system cost and the rise of electricity price, the IRR will be further improved. The high yield and short payback period overseas stimulate the rapid development of household storage.

5. Reason 5: The on-grid electricity price is lower than the electricity price

The grid-connected household photovoltaic electricity price policy has gradually shifted to self-consumption, promoting residents to allocate energy storage on the basis of photovoltaics. The current grid-connected household photovoltaic electricity price mainly includes three types of policies: Feed-in Tariff (FiT), net metering and self-consumption. In Germany, Japan, Australia and other countries, the FiT subsidy price has been declining in recent years. The on-grid tariff of FiT surplus electricity in Germany has dropped by more than 80% in the past 15 years. Japan's household photovoltaic FiT has expired in sequence from November 2019, and the subsidy price after the expiration has been greatly increased. reduce. At present, some states in the United States have terminated the net metering plan, and countries such as the Netherlands and Italy will also withdraw from the net metering policy. Under the German self-consumption model, the on-grid electricity price is only 0.06 euros/kwh, and the self-use part is equivalent to making profits at the electricity price of 0.4 euros/kwh. Therefore, self-use after allocation and storage can improve the yield, while the FiT and net metering policies are gradually declining. , Since the consumption policy has been gradually promoted, the economy of residents' layout of light + storage has continued to improve. 6. Conclusion: The economical improvement of solar energy storage

The gap between the cost of solar energy storage LCOE and household electricity consumption is widening, and the economy of household solar energy storage is prominent. According to SPE, the average cost of electricity (LCOE) of photovoltaic + energy storage equipment in Germany in 2021 is 14.7 euro cents/kWh, which is close to 1/2 of the household electricity price in the same period, and the LCOE difference is 17.2 euro cents/kWh. We expect that the price difference between the two will continue to widen gradually in the future. By 2023, the solar + storage LCOE is expected to drop to 12.8 euro cents/kWh, and the gap between the LCOE and the household electricity price will increase to 18.9 euro cents/kWh in the same period. further highlighted.

Household savings in Europe exploded, and U.S. growth accelerated

1. Europe: Rapid growth of household savings, Germany leads Europe

The installed capacity of European household storage is in a trend of continuous growth. In 2021, European household storage will reach 2045MWh, a year-on-year increase of 73%. The compound annual growth rate from 15 to 21 will reach 63%, and the growth is very fast. Among them, Germany is the largest growth in European household storage. Power, in 2021, the installed capacity of German household storage capacity will reach 1,479MWh, accounting for 72% of European household storage capacity, followed by Italy (191MWh), the United Kingdom (81MWh), Spain (48MWh), and France (35MWh), with CR5 accounting for 90% in total .

2. Germany: the world's largest household storage market, the installed capacity of household storage continues to increase rapidly

Germany is the world's largest market for household energy storage, and the penetration rate of solar storage installations ranks first in the world. In 2021, Germany will add 1.48GWh of household energy storage, an increase of 45%, accounting for 34% of the world; the cumulative installed capacity is 3.92GWh, an increase of 60.6%, accounting for 32% of the world. In 2021, the penetration rate of solar energy storage in Germany will be 3.6%, ranking first in the world. Under the energy crisis, electricity prices have risen, stimulating a high demand for household storage. The average wholesale electricity price in Germany rose from €52.8/MWh in January 2021 to a maximum of €206/MWh in June 2022, an increase of 313%.

3. Italy, Britain and Austria: household savings grow steadily

Soaring electricity prices and policy subsidies drive the development of household storage. With the exception of Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and Austria, which are at the forefront of the installed capacity of household storage, are driven by electricity prices and policies, and the scale of new installed capacity of household storage grows steadily every year. By the end of 2021, the installed capacity of household storage in the UK is 81MWh, a year-on-year increase of 113%. Italy’s installed capacity of household storage in Europe is second only to Germany. In 2021, the installed capacity of household storage in Italy will be 191MWh, an increase of 122%.

4. The United States: The energy storage market has a huge space, and the development of household energy storage is accelerating

The development of energy storage in the United States is on the fast track. The cost of energy storage systems in the United States has continued to decline, policy support has continued to increase, coupled with regulatory reforms by the federal and state governments, energy storage in the United States has developed rapidly. In 2021, the new installed capacity of energy storage in the United States will be 3971MW/10880MWh, and the installed capacity will increase by 341% year-on-year. Among them, household energy storage added 343MW/960MWh, accounting for 8.8% of the total newly installed energy storage capacity. The American Energy Storage Association believes that by 2025, the installed capacity of energy storage systems deployed in the US energy storage market will increase fivefold. Among them, customer-side energy storage systems continue to constitute a major part of this growth.

5. China: At present, the economy of household storage is not high, and household storage manufacturers mainly target overseas customers

China's energy storage installed capacity is growing rapidly, and the main installed capacity is from centralized. China's energy storage installed capacity has been growing rapidly in the past two years. In 2020, the newly installed energy storage capacity will reach 1.37GW/2.48GWh, a year-on-year increase of 153%/189%. In 2021, the newly added energy storage capacity will reach 2.45GW/4.61GWh, a year-on-year increase of 79%. %/86%, of which the most important contribution comes from my country's centralized energy storage installations. my country's distributed energy storage is still in the early stage of development and the economy is not high. In 2021, the distributed energy storage installed capacity is 188MW/333MWh, a year-on-year increase of +11 %/-30%, and centralized energy storage accounts for over 90%.

6. Australia: Policy support, lighting and installation conditions drive the development of household storage

Policy support, better lighting and installation conditions drive the development of household energy storage. In terms of policy support, Australia has introduced a small-scale renewable energy plan and FiT subsidy policy to promote the installation of solar energy storage; in terms of light and installation conditions, Australia has sufficient light resources, high photovoltaic power generation efficiency, vast land and sparsely populated areas, and most residential buildings are villas. , suitable for installing photovoltaics, and the home storage system is highly economical. In 2021, Australia will achieve a household storage capacity of 206MW/494MWh, a year-on-year increase of 45% in terms of MWh.

7. Japan: Receding subsidies, unstable power supply, and suitable housing types drive the development of household storage

The penetration rate of household energy storage in Japan is relatively high, second only to Germany. In 2021, Japan’s installed capacity of off-balance sheet energy storage will be 931MWh (+8% year-on-year), and household energy storage will account for 90% of off-balance sheet energy storage. According to Infolink survey statistics, the number of houses suitable for PV installation in Japan exceeds 25 million. As of 2020, the installed PV and energy storage ratio will be about 10%/2%. Even in Japan, where the development of household PV is relatively mature, the future There is still a lot of room for expansion. In 2021, the proportion of photovoltaics equipped with energy storage will be 20.7%, and we expect the penetration rate to reach 38.5% in 2025. (Report source: Future Think Tank)